NGX Market Daily Summary – Monday, November 24, 2025

The NGX All-Share Index opened the new week on a soft note, dipping -0.08% to 143,722.62, even as trading activity surged with volume up 7.4% and turnover jumping 13.19% to ₦28.14B. Market breadth was negative, with decliners (30) closely outnumbering advancers (19), as investors saw more pockets of volatility and profit-taking, especially in small- and mid-cap names. Meanwhile, the Naira slipped 0.17% to 1,454/USD.

Weekly Recap

Coming off last week, the ASI cooled after its persistent ascent, with YTD returns easing to 39.19%. Despite the negative breadth, overall trading activity remained robust and select momentum plays continued to push fresh highs, with ETFs and insurance stocks showing increased volatility. Watchers saw a tactical shift with more institutional dominance in volume/value, but rising retail activity in trade count—a flag for increasing speculative trading.

Market Breadth & Activity Trends

• Breadth: Decliners (30) outpaced advancers (19), with a weak breadth ratio of 0.63x, pointing to profit-taking after prior market strength.
• Turnover: Stronger than the previous session (+13.2%)—liquidity remains deep, suggesting institutional presence and high conviction in select names.
• Volume: 685.35M shares traded across 22,847 deals (+7.4% on volume), with up volumes for 76 stocks and down for 67.
• Retail vs Institutional: Institutions dominated, accounting for 82.98% of traded volume and 94.32% of value, while retail investors led in trade count (67.13%).

Top Gainers and Losers

YTD Top Gainers and Losers (Monday Special)

Momentum Analysis: Bullish & Bearish Breakouts

• RSI Overbought/Bullish: SIAMLETF40’s RSI at 84.01 marks significant overbought momentum, powered by strong ETF inflows—high risk of a near-term pullback but underlying demand is robust. NCR remains extremely overbought (RSI 99.07), likely to draw both momentum hunters and fast profit-takers.
• Bullish 15DMA Crossovers: CILEASING, UPDC, RTBRISCOE, FTNCOCOA all closed above their 15D MA, suggesting a cluster of early-stage rallies in support/logistics, real estate, and autos. Portfolio managers: watch for sector-wide rotation if these breakouts sustain.
• Bearish 15DMA Crossovers: PRESTIGE, NPFMCRFBK, and MERGROWTH ETF all closed below 15DMA—selling pressure is increasing. Notably, both PRESTIGE and NPFMCRFBK were among today’s top losers, showing strong alignment between technical and price weakness.
• Low RSI Bearish Watch: INTENEGINS remains below the 30-level (RSI: 27.6) but up significantly for the day – a possible short-covering or dead-cat bounce scenario.
• MACD Signals: No notable bullish MACD crossovers among high-volume/large-cap names. Some ETF products (SIAMLETF40) showed strong bullish MACD, underlying the surge in passive inflows.

Unusual Volume Alerts

• Surge in UNILEVER, GTCO, JAPAULGOLD volume – watch for news/possible block trades. Consistent upticks in volume without major price spikes can signal quiet accumulation/distribution.
• Top traded by institutions: ZENITHBANK, FIDELITYBK, UBA, ACCESSCORP, FCMB – heavyweights remain institutional favorites for liquidity.
• Top traded by retail: MTNN, ACCESSCORP, ZENITHBANK, UBA, GTCO – overlap with institutional flows but note higher retail interest in telecoms (MTNN).

Sector Heatmap & Institutional/Retail Activity (Top 5 Sectors)

Dividend–Beta Matrix (Defensive Play Finder)

Contrarian Signals

• CILEASING: Gained 5.19% with a middling RSI of 41.7 and a bullish 15DMA crossover—momentum could have more room, especially since it led YTD gainers but is not yet technically overbought.
• INTENEGINS: RSI is 27.56 (typically oversold), yet surged 8.49% to be a top gainer—potential short squeeze or reversal play, but high risk.
• PRESTIGE: High dividend yield (2.5%) with negative price momentum and a bearish 15DMA breach suggests possible defensive rotation if downward trend exhausts.
• SIAMLETF40: Up 10% with an extreme overbought RSI (84.0)—momentum may soon meet mean reversion.
• DEAPCAP: Multiyear high PE (188.8) with a declining price and high volatility is a strong caution for buyers despite recent pops.

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK: Comprises an estimated 20.17% of institutional trade value share. Strong, steady volume from institutions often forebodes sustained interest, though price drifted sideways – watch for a catalyst or breakout.
• FIDELITYBK: Robust flow from institutions, plus unusual volume, but price movement was neutral – possibly "smart money” rotating positions, so monitor for a directional follow-through.

Market Activity/Trade Summary Analysis

• Institutions vs. Retail: Institutions took 83% of today's volume and 94% of value traded, while retail investors dominated by a large margin in total trade count (2/3 of trades by "number of deals").
  • Institutional: Focused on a few large-cap banks (ZENITHBANK, FIDELITYBK, UBA), controlling market direction and providing stability.
  • Retail: Split into high-activity in both blue chips (ZENITHBANK, GTCO, ACCESSCORP) and speculative (MTNN), chasing momentum.
  • Correlation alert: Stocks with high institutional AND retail overlap (ZENITHBANK, UBA, ACCESSCORP) tend to see reduced directional volatility, especially on flat days, but are primed for breakouts when news hits.
  • Unusual volume outlier: UNILEVER posted a 2,686% volume spike—but on nominal price gain. Smart money may be rotating in quietly.
• Trade Value Insights: Institutional trades concentrated in ZENITHBANK, FIDELITYBK—these are liquidity anchors for local funds.

Traders' Playbook & Strategy Ideas

• Momentum traders: SIAMLETF40, NCR, and NEWGOLD ETF are on fire, but use trailing stops—RSI extremities point to near-term risk of reversals.
• Contrarian opportunity: INTENEGINS and CILEASING are rallying from oversold/neutral RSI—watch for a trend confirmation.
• Caution on PRESTIGE, NPFMCRFBK, DEAPCAP—downtrends are confirmed by both price action and technicals.
• Defensive income seekers: Target high-dividend, low-beta stocks (NEM, LINKASSURE)—wait for technical stabilization on the insurance sector for best entries.
• Track unusual volumes for early signs of large money accumulating (UNILEVER, GTCO).
• Short-term mean reversion setups possible in overextended ETF names, especially if institutional volume fades.
• Watch sector-wide 15DMA breakouts for early trend detection—clusters in logistics, real estate, and autos may flag sector rotation themes.